ICEREG

LL-00136

Ice-jam flood risk management in Latvian and Lithuanian regions with respect to climate change

Common territorial challenge (s) that will be tackled by the project

Climate change adaptation plans for Latvia and Lithuania include flood risk reduction and management. The ice-jam phenomena are insufficiently investigated in terms of ice-jam floods formation, though it is an additional flood source that can lead to inundation of vast areas and severe damage to inhabitants and the economy. Ice-jam phenomena are almost unpredictable. However, analysis of historical ice flood events, meteorological and hydrological conditions, allows to develop the ice-jam flood formation concept. Through transnational cooperation of national and local public authorities, the ICEREG project proposes and transfers good practices to the target groups to improve ice-jam flood management in the context of climate change.

Project objective

The overall objective of the project was to improve the management of ice-jam flood risk by elaborating corresponding flood maps and a conceptual model of ice-jam flood formation with respect to climate change. These project results can now be used by the target groups for planning of the national ice-jam flood protection measures and implementation of flood risk management plans in municipal territories.

Planned activities

A conceptual model of ice-jam formation and flood inundation caused by this phenomenon was developed on the basis of historical data analysis. Changes in the appearance of the ice jams due to climate change impact were also evaluated. Ice flood hazard and risk maps with 0.5%, 1%, 10% probabilities and for years 2030, 2070, 2100 were developed, for the pilot territories. Based on the project results, the Flood Risk Information System in Latvia and Warning System in Lithuania were improved by adding information on ice-jam formation and possible ice flood. Flood maps with affected areas and data integration in Warning systems in both countries are available for the national and local authorities and the target groups.

Project results

Historical ice-jam data for the time period 1961 – 2023 were analysed, to identify the ice-jam most sensitive areas in Latvia and Lithuania (project deliverable D1.1.1) and to develop the Conceptual model of the ice-jam formation (deliverable D1.2.1).

Climate change modelling for selected pilot areas was performed, to predict the impact on formation and extent of ice jams in the future up to year 2100 (deliverable D1.2.2).

Trainings on flood modelling for the project partners were held (deliverable D2.1.3).

Field works in the pilot areas were performed, measuring in total 135 river profile cross-sections in Latvia and 81 cross-sections in Lithuania to obtain actual data for subsequent modelling (deliverable D2.2.1).

Ice-jam flood maps for the pilot areas were developed:

Concept of ice-jam warning was developed (deliverable D3.1.1), and the Warning Systems in both countries were supplemented with ice-jam warnings, based on the Conceptual model of the ice-jam formation developed within the project:

Flood Risk Information System and Warning System (Latvia)
Warning System (Lithuania)

Finally, the list of ice-jam flood management measures was developed, with particular attention to measures appropriate for the pilot areas (deliverable D3.2.1).

Project results are also available in the ICEREG project section on LEGMC web site.